Magnum Cartridges & Popularity
Don't run out to buy that new rifle which uses the latest Seriously, I would urge you to think carefully before you buy any 'new' chambering. You could get stuck with something no one wants in a few years. The best reason for many new cartridges, especially magnum cartridges, is selling guns to the new or uninformed shooters. I'm a long time gun-nut, but have only a passing interest in most of the new cartridges introduced in recent years. Why! Because I don't need them, few others will, and some will be gone in a few years. I'll use two rounds introduced when I was a boy as examples. Winchester introduced a new series of cartridges based on the .308 I was excited about the new magnums, but I knew the .300 and the .338 were certainly more gun than I needed. The largest animal I would hunt was a 150-200 lb. whitetail. I wanted the new .264 Win. Mag., but I strongly considered a .270 Finally I got realistic and went with a .243 because I could also use it for some varmint hunting. Now some 40 years and many deer later I know I made a great choice. I've also enjoyed some varmint hunting which I probably wouldn't with kick and cost of the .264 Mag. or even the .270. I can find .243 ammunition or brass easily. The .243 has proven to be a very popular cartridge. The little .243 Winchester has been much bigger in sales than the more powerful .264 Winchester Magnum. The .243 filled a niche as a light recoiling, pleasant to shoot round. Practical as a double duty varmint and deer rifle. The typical whitetail, our most popular big game, is not that large, or that hard to put on the ground. The niche was not crowded with competition for the .243. There was the older .257 Roberts (a great round), but factory rounds were loaded somewhat lightly. The original .244 Remington (as good or better than the .243) was introduced around the same time as a varmint round. It had a rifling twist for lighter varmint bullets. By the time Remington changed the twist, and renamed it the 6 mm. Remington, the .243 had a head start with a huge following. I'm sure the .264 is a great round, especially for long shots out past 200 yards. But more big game shots are taken at less than 200 yards; as it should be. Some may brag about the long shots they make, but it is better to avoid them. The .264 didn't fill a niche. It's hard to justify a need for it. The very popular .270 could do almost everything it could do. I don't see any needs or niches today. One new round which I believe 'could' last is the .260 Remington. There are no popular .26 rifle calibers in our country. It's like a modern version between the great old .257 Roberts, and not far behind the .270 in most respects. But, we don't really need it. Some shooters have had great success and love their magnum cartridges, but most don't find them fun to shoot. No magnum cartridges under 7 mm. has been a huge success. Probably because the smaller caliber magnums only "show-their-stuff" at very long range. Some new cartridges (magnum or otherwise) will last, but I don't expect any to become popular. Factory rounds, brass, dies... will be at a premium and somewhat hard to find. In a few years some old and new cartridges may be very difficult to find.
The magnums of 7 mm. and larger make more sense because they are often used on some truly big game. There are many on the market, especially in 7 mm. and .30 caliber. They will likely be "weeded out" to a few of the best, or what the makers "push" the most. Best is only one factor of popularity. A cartridge that has been around for a while has some advantages. We hunters naturally "sell" other hunters on what we like. There are already many guns which use those cartridges. Popular cartridges may become more popular.
In 50 years I believe the same cartridges will be the most popular. A lot could change, but just for fun, here are my guesses for the most new gun sales, and especially ammunition sales. Most popular: .223, .243, .270, 30-06, (.30-30 see below) New rounds are exciting and fun, and some will "make it". A very few could rise to the top, but most will be hard to find in a few years. A few hunters may have a real use for new magnum cartridges. Others don't know much about guns, and think they can buy something impressive. These hunters are the niche for these new cartridges. We have many more pages of information. Magnum Cartridges to Rifle Calibers
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